Despite signs showing a strengthening economy, the labor market has stubbornly refused to take its cue.
In Georgia, both the number of jobs and the number of people in the work force dropped in July, the state Department of Labor reported Thursday. Nationally, the number of people filing for jobless claims was up last week and continues to hover near recession levels.
So far in 2003, the U.S. economy has lost jobs in every month except January.
"I don't think the experts know exactly what's going on here," said Betty Daniel, chairwoman of the economics department at the State University of New York at Albany. "Everyone expected the economy to pick up by now, and during all previous recoveries, jobs pick up, too."
In metro Atlanta, 5,900 jobs evaporated last month, state officials said Thursday. But the work force shrank by more than twice that. The result was a slight decline in the unemployment rate, to 5.3 percent.
Georgia lost 16,600 jobs in July, the department said.
But everything is relative -- and those numbers are not "seasonally adjusted," that is, compared with how the work force usually does in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics this week said a seasonal adjustment shows Atlanta and the state losing fewer jobs than usual.
Using that calculation, Georgia and Atlanta lead the nation in job growth, the BLS said.
Nationally, new jobless claims last week rose slightly, notching up 3,000 to 394,000, the government said Thursday.
That number looks much better than during winter and spring, when it hovered well above 400,000, prodded by a combination of war worries and high energy prices. New jobless claims have been below 400,000 in five of the past six weeks.
A slow pace
When claims first slipped below 400,000 -- that level is often used as the benchmark for recession conditions -- optimists hailed the move as a long-awaited signal that the job-making machinery was cranking into gear.
Yet the equipment seems stuck in slow.
The number of people already receiving benefits has increased. That pool has grown since mid-July and now includes 3.7 million people.
For millions of Americans looking for work, the search is increasingly frustrating: More than 9.1 million Americans are unemployed, according to the latest government data, and roughly 2 million people have been out of work for six months or more.
Steven Plavny, 44, of Roswell has been jobless since arriving in Atlanta in late 2001.
The Pittsburgh native has two graduate degrees and two decades of experience in public relations. He hasn't found work in his field -- though he would accept less than half the salary he was making a few years ago.
"I can't even get a job loading UPS trucks at night here in Roswell. I was successful in my field for 20 years, and now I'm desperate just to do something."
A veteran of AT&T and 3Com, Plavny said his savings are limited.
"I have an older mother in Pittsburgh who ought to be moving in with me. I have no kids, no wife. And I can't even help out my mother."
Job seekers are pinning their hopes on indicators that seem to show the economy heating up. But even economic expansion does not guarantee job growth, said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Even if business improves, companies may not hire more workers. That's because companies, if they can, are likely to use the people they've already employed.
"If there is an increase in demand, at least part of that would be picked up by workers just working more hours," Baker said.
Recent numbers could be misleading, say the optimists. Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Securities, for one, says the surveys miss employment at new companies and home businesses.
When the final reports are in, he said, they will show job growth has begun.
Jobs data are revised every year by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since 1990, the jobs report has been adjusted upward eight times and downward five times, said Michael Wald, BLS regional economist.
It could go either way this time, too, said Dean Croushore, a former Federal Reserve economist and now a professor at the University of Richmond in Virginia. "Over the last five recessions, the revisions have averaged out close to zero."
Salary an issue
Besides, it's not just the number of jobs -- it's how much they pay. Many of the jobs not being counted are jobs that pay a lot less than the jobs lost during the recession, Croushore said.
"People who are self-employed -- most of those people are a lot less well-off than they were before."
One of them is Michael Manning.
The 41-year-old Marietta resident is working as a consultant for several clients but has nowhere near the work -- or the income -- that he had in 2001, when he was laid off from his job as an agency vice president.
"I'm making a decent salary. I don't have to hassle with traffic. I am here for my 13-year-old son," he said. "But I have a lot to offer a big business, and that is what I'd like to do."
Most economists say jobs depend on spurring the economy into still-faster growth. Among potential obstacles is the increase in oil prices.
"The fear is that if it lasts for very long, it could choke off the recovery," said SUNY's Daniel. "Jobs are probably going to pick up now, too -- that is, if the recovery continues."
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