NEW YORK - Fewer Americans lined up to claim first-time jobless benefits last week but analysts said the modest decline said very little about the current state of the labor market.
For a more conclusive picture, economists have to wait until next month, when the government releases its much-anticipated payrolls report for August.
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits dipped to 331,000 in the week ended Aug. 14, the third straight weekly drop, from a revised 334,000 in the previous week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
"These data indicate that labor market conditions have been little changed over the past five months," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics.
"However, the historic relationship between the claims data and payroll employment has weakened significantly," he added. "While new claims have been little changed over the past 5 months, payroll employment has slowed sharply during that period."
In other words, a clear picture of the jobs situation will not emerge until early September.
If the Conference Board's measure of leading economic indicators is any measure, things are unlikely to get much better any time soon.
That index fell an unusually steep 0.3 percent in July to 116.0 after a smaller 0.1 drop in June.
Painting a conflicting picture, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on Thursday its National Activity Index returned to positive territory in July after a sharp decline in June as manufacturing components improved.
The index rose to +0.35 in July from a downwardly revised -0.19 in June, which had been originally reported as 0.0.
Economists will get another view of factory activity at noon EDT, when the Philadelphia Fed releases its report on U.S. mid-Atlantic manufacturing for August.
In the jobless claims report, the Labor Department said Hurricane Charley in Florida had no impact on the data just yet. But the department cautioned that the Southeastern state's jobless claims may worsen in the weeks ahead as people who were forced out of their jobs because of the storm begin to file for benefits.
The four-week moving average of claims fell for the second consecutive week, to 337,000 from 339,500, suggesting the pace of layoffs has eased.
The number of people who remained on the jobless rolls after collecting an initial week of benefits rose 16,000 to 2.90 million in the week ended Aug. 7, the latest for which figures are available.
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