U.S. Unemployment at 5%

By Randi F. Marshall, Staff Writer
Newsday




July 9, 2005

The nation's unemployment rate fell to 5 percent last month - its lowest level since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

But this week's bombings in London may give employers yet another excuse to be cautious in their hiring, as many have been in recent months. And unemployed workers appear to be cautious, too - as many of them are staying out of the workforce, therefore, in part, driving the unemployment rate down.

The nation's employers created ',000 jobs in June, according to a U.S. Labor Department report Friday. The gain was smaller than expected, but keeps the labor market on pace with last year's job growth.

"We're running just fast enough to stay in place," said Bill Cheney, chief economist with John Hancock Financial Services in Boston. "It's not getting any worse, but it isn't really getting any better."

Yet Cheney and other experts also note that the job creation data may be revised upward in the coming months, since it does not really match the decline in the unemployment rate.

"I think it's reasonable to expect some bounce in the pace of job growth next month," said Alan Levenson, T. Rowe Price's chief economist.

The relatively moderate job growth comes amid profit and productivity gains.

Many experts suggest that it's part of a potentially permanent change in employers' thinking, as they hire fewer workers when considering global competition, rising benefit costs, higher interest rates, new technology and, yes, the potential for terrorism's impact on the economy.

"It means that it's going to be a lot tougher for the broad working class to share in the benefits of productivity growth," said economist Jared Bernstein, with the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C.

Last month, the vast majority of new jobs came in the service sector. Manufacturing continued to lose jobs, and retail posted a disappointing gain of 2,000 spots.

Economists blamed increased technology, from Internet shopping to self-serve checkout, for the lack of retail jobs.

The lack of lower-skill jobs has led to a mismatch between job seekers and positions available, leaving a "skill shortage," according to Roy Krause, president of staffing firm Spherion Corp.

"I continue to be optimistic about job creation," he said. "It will be bumpy, but it's a slow, steady recovery."

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzjobs4337123jul09,0,6629350.story?coll=ny-business-headlines

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