Anyone who thinks this economy is doing better hasn't been talking to average Americans. According to polls, the percentage of people who say the economy is in good shape is lower now than it was in January. Recent Gallup and CBS News surveys show President Bush's rating for economic stewardship at its lowest since he took office.
Why the gloom? Because, although more than a million jobs have been added to U.S. payrolls since January, that still leaves over a million fewer jobs than when Bush took office. And this number doesn't even include the hundreds of thousands of people who have entered the job market since then, or have given up looking altogether.
Here are the facts: More than 8 million Americans are unemployed today. That's 39,000 more than in April. And more than one in five Americans have been out of work for six months or more. Layoffs are continuing at a fast clip. The number of planned layoffs in May was actually higher than in April. And the portion of Americans who think jobs are "hard to get" rose from 28% in April to 30.6% in May. That's nearly twice the percentage who say jobs are "plentiful."
Meanwhile, the jobs most Americans have now are nothing to brag about. Wages are stagnant. According to the Labor Department, the weekly pay of the typical full-time worker is rising no faster than inflation. Two years ago, pay was rising 2% faster than inflation. And as employers shift health care costs to their employees, the price most people pay for insurance has soared. At the same time, the prices of all sorts of other things — including gas, milk, beef, eggs, even college tuitions — have gone way up. Interest rates are also heading north, which means those with credit-card debt and variable mortgages will take an additional hit.
What has the Bush administration done about the economy? It has given out huge tax cuts, largely to people earning more than $200,000 and to big corporations, causing the federal budget deficit to balloon.
John Kerry says we don't have to accept this. We can grow the economy. We can get our fiscal house in order. We can have an economy as good as or better than it was during the Clinton administration. This isn't a message of gloom. It's a message of hope — one based on solid economics.
Former secretary of Labor Robert B. Reich is author of Reason: Why Liberals Will Win the Battle for America. He wrote the Opposing view at the request of the Kerry campaign.
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