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June 4, 2004
WASHINGTON -- Kerry spokesperson Allison Dobson issued the following statement today in response to the new unemployment numbers:
"Any step forward in the job market is good news for workers but America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression, with 1.9 million private-sector jobs lost in the Bush presidency.
"Families are still struggling in this economy. Jobs are scarce and those lucky enough to have one are making $1,500 less each year. Meanwhile, their budgets are being squeezed by skyrocketing costs of healthcare, college tuition and gasoline.
"John Kerry has a real economic plan to create 10 million new jobs in his first term as President. He will end special tax breaks for companies that outsource jobs, help companies and families address the skyrocketing costs of healthcare and move America towards energy independence."
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GEORGE BUSH'S RECORD ON JOBS AND THE ECONOMY: KEY FACTS
-- The economy has lost 1.9 million private-sector jobs under President Bush - the worst jobs record of any President since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression.
-- America is 7 million jobs short of the prediction President Bush made in February 2002.
-- The number of Americans who say that jobs are hard to get is rising - and is nearly twice as large as the number of Americans who report a plentiful job situation.
-- Jobs in growing industries pay $9,000 less than jobs in contracting industries.
-- The typical family's income has declined by nearly $1,500 under President Bush.
-- Healthcare costs are up nearly 50 percent, gasoline is up more than 40 percent, and college tuition is up 35 percent.
Jobs Are Down Under President Bush and Long-term Unemployment is Up
1.9 million private sector jobs lost; the worst President since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression. Under President Bush the American economy has lost 1.9 million private-sector jobs, the first job-loss President since Herbert Hoover. By contrast, by this point in President Clinton's first term the economy created 9 million private sector jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
2.7 million manufacturing jobs lost under President Bush. The American economy has lost 2.7 million manufacturing jobs under President Bush, about one in six jobs lost. (BLS)
The worst jobs recovery since at least World War II. Since the official start of the recovery in November 2001 the economy has only gained 142,000 jobs. On average, post-World War II recoveries have seen 4.5 million private sector jobs in their first 30 months. (BLS)
8.2 million Americans unemployed - up from last month. Today 8.2 million Americans are unemployed, a 39,000 increase from April. More than 1 in 5 out of work for more than six months. (BLS)
Long-term unemployment up 165 percent under President Bush - the highest level in two decades. In January 2001 675,000 Americans were unemployed for more than six months. Today that number has exploded to 1.8 million - a 165 percent increase. (BLS)
Americans Are Worried About Jobs as People Shift to Part-Time and Temporary Jobs and Layoffs Rise
More Americans think jobs are hard to get. The number of Americans who think that jobs are "hard to get" rose from 28.0 percent in April to 30.6 percent in May - that is nearly twice the 16.6 percent of Americans saying jobs are "plentiful." More Americans say that jobs are hard to get than at any time during 2001 or 2002 - a period that includes the recession. (Conference Board, "Consumer Confidence Index)
No recovery in consumer confidence since the tax cuts. Michigan and ABC both show confidence down from May 2003 when the last round of tax cuts were passed. The Consumer Board index is up somewhat since then, but is still below its recessionary average.
-- Conference Board: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence was at 93.2 in May, up from 83.6 in May 2003. But this is still 13 percent below the average for 2001 (106.6) and is below the average for 2002 (96.6), and 30 percent below the average of 132.8 for 1997 through 2000. (Conference Board)
-- University of Michigan: At 90.2, Michigan's index of consumer confidence is below where it was one year earlier in May of 2003, when it was at 92.1. It is barely above the averages for 2001 (89.2) or 2002 (89.6), and is 14 percent below its average of 105.3 for 1997 through 2000. (University of Michigan)
Planned layoffs up for two months in a row. "The number of planned layoffs in the United States rose for the second month in a row in May, with the retail sector registering the highest number of job cuts... Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., said planned job cuts rose by just 1.6 percent to 73,368 in May compared with 72,184 in April." (Reuters, 5/1/04)
1.3 million more Americans are unable to find full-time jobs. Since January 2001, the number of Americans working "part time for economic reasons" has risen from 3.3 million to 4.7 million -- a 1.3 million increase. That is a 40 percent increase. Many or most of these jobs lack health insurance and other benefits. (BLS)
259,000 temporary jobs created in the last year. Since the stimulus bill the economy has created 259,000 temporary jobs. (BLS)
Jobs Are Well Short of President Bush's Predictions
7 million jobs short of President Bush's prediction. Annual projections in the 2002 Economic Report of the President implied nearly 6 million new jobs between January 2001 and May 2004. Instead, we have lost more than 1 million jobs. As a result, we are 7 million jobs short of the prediction which President Bush made after 9/11, the tech bubble, and the recession. (BLS and Economic Report of the President, 2002)
The President predicted the 2003 stimulus would create 306,000 jobs per month - instead we have only created 113,000 jobs per month. In February 2003 the President's Council of Economic Advisers issued a White Paper predicting that the President's stimulus plan would create an average of 306,000 jobs per month for the following 18 months. The economy has fallen short of this prediction in 10 of the 12 months since the tax cut - creating an average of 113,000 jobs per month. (Council of Economic Advisers, 2/4/04, "Strengthening America's Economy" and BLS)
Wages and Incomes Are Falling
Jobs are shifting to lower-paying industries paying $9,160 less. Nationwide jobs are growing in industries with low-paying jobs and contracting in industries with higher-paying jobs. On average, jobs in growing industries pay $9,160 less than jobs in contracting industries -- that is 21 percent less. (Economic Policy Institute, "Jobs Shift From Higher Paying to Lower Paying Industries," January 21, 2004)
Family income has declined $1,462 under President Bush. Under President Bush the typical family has seen its inflation-adjusted income decline by $1,462 based on the most recent data showing the change from 2000 to 2002. Under President Clinton the typical family saw its inflation-adjusted income rise by $7,202. (Census)
Wages are the lowest share of national income on record - while profits are rising. Wages as a share of national income fell from 55.4 percent in 2001-Q1 to 51.5 percent in 2004-Q1. That is the lowest share since these data started being collected in 1929. At the same time, the profits have risen to nearly the highest rates in decades. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The wage deficit is $172 billion. The difference between current wages and what they would have been given historical wage growth is $172 billion. That is $1,600 per household. (BEA & Kerry campaign analysis)
Families Are Increasingly Squeezed By Rising Costs
Family health premiums are up 49 percent. Between 2000 and 2003 the premium paid by employees for a family policy as gone up 49 percent. The total family premium is up more than $2,600. (Kaiser Family Foundation, Employer Health Benefits 2003)
Gasoline is up 41 percent. Since George Bush took office, gas prices have increased by $0.56 per gallon. Gas prices are now $2.00 per gallon, a 41 percent increase. At current prices, the average US household would spend $593 more per year on gasoline than when Bush took office. (EIA, PMM. May 2001; AAA, Fuel Gauge Report, 5/18/04)
College tuition is up 35 percent. College tuition has gone up 35 percent in the last three years, the highest rate three-year increase on record. This has priced an estimated 220,000 students out of four-year public universities. (College Board, Trends in Student Pricing 2003 & Kerry campaign estimates)
Rising Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits Are Unsustainable
Record $477 billion budget deficit. America has gone from a record surplus in FY 2000 to a projected record $477 billion deficit in FY 2004. (CBO, 2004, An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2005)
A record $490 billion trade deficit in 2003. The trade deficit last year reached a record $490 billion ($549 billion in goods or $401 billion in goods excluding oil). The overall trade deficit was 5 percent of GDP - also a record. Forty percent of our public debt is now held outside the United States; with more than 20 percent in Japan and China alone. Bush's record budget deficits have helped cause these record trade deficits. (BEA & Census, Treasury)
Contact: Allison Dobson of John Kerry for President, 202-464-2800
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