Unemployment Figures Fail To End Uncertainty

Associated Press




January 18, 2004

The recent report showing the nation's labor market remains stagnant may have surprised analysts, but not people like Marty Jaffe.

Jaffe, a job counselor in suburban Cleveland, only had to look at his appointment log - filled for the upcoming week with back-to-back meetings with people searching for work, just the same as last week.

The puzzle, both for those who gauge the job market up close and those who sift through numbers, is figuring out what the disappointing figures released by the government Jan. 9 say about where the economy is headed.

But after repeated projections that the job market would soon round the bend and help secure a recovery, there's renewed uncertainty.

"You wouldn't know that things are better based on the number of people who are either meeting with us or all the other job groups," said Jaffe, manager of InfoPLACE, a career counseling center at the Cuyahoga County Public Library branch in Maple Heights, Ohio.

"It sort of cuts across class and experience and education," said Jaffe, comparing the changes to the layoffs in the 1980s that focused mostly on northeast Ohio's factory jobs. Now, assembly line workers and professionals "are both in the same boat."

The national unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in December, the lowest level in 14 months. But employers did almost no hiring, with the drop in the jobless rate largely reflecting the fact that more than 300,000 American gave up looking for work.

The 1,000 new jobs created were far below the 150,000 new jobs economists expected. That is considered a key level because it is enough to absorb new entrants to the labor market and begin to offset existing unemployment.

The average unemployed worker continues to spend nearly 20 weeks looking for a job, the report said.

The bright spots were limited. One of the few was hiring by temporary employment agencies, often one of the first sources of new jobs in a recovery, which added 30,000 new positions in December.

Economists, noting that layoffs have slowed substantially in recent months, said the report shows hiring remains the crucial missing ingredient essential to continued recovery.

People looking for jobs and those who counsel them say they see a labor market that is gradually warming, but slowly.

More than a year after he lost his job as a product development manager with a food processing firm, Dave Popp says he's getting more interviews and callbacks, although no offers, yet.

"I think the corner is being rounded right now. I think we're ready to start charging up the hill," said Popp, of Brecksville, a Cleveland suburb.

Popp, who started an unemployment support group at his church, said the twice-monthly meetings continue to draw 40 people. But he senses a different mood. More jobs are being posted, he and other job seekers say. His friends with sales jobs say their corporate accounts - the same companies that are potential employers - are paying bills on time, always a good sign.

http://www.dailyherald.com/business/business_story.asp?intid=3800417

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