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October 18, 2007
PHOENIX - Woes in the home construction and mortgage industries grab the headlines, but a new report shows continued strength in Arizona's economy, with unemployment at a record low percentage rate in September.
The Department of Economic Security's monthly report released Thursday was headlined by some glossy overall stats, although a senior DES researcher cautioned that there are still grounds for caution.
The brightest number: A seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September of just 3.3 percent, down from 3.7 percent in August and matching the previous low of 3.3 percent set 40 years ago in 1967.
DES said the current statewide employment of 2.7 million also is a record, up 6,000 jobs from April of this year even as construction employment slipped to 240,000 in September from a peak of 254,600 jobs in October 2006.
"Construction hasn't entirely stopped in our state and I think that needs to be a key point to look at," said Don Wehbey, the DES economic analysis manager.
The lower statewide rate was reflected in similar decreases in narrower measurements provided by DES for the Flagstaff, Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Phoenix, Prescott, Tucson and Yuma areas.
September job gains in such industries as leisure, education, business services and health care more than offset losses in construction, for a net increase of 28,500 jobs.
But, Wehbey said, the slowdown in housing and related spending continues to work its way through the general economy.
One example from the September unemployment report: a loss of 400 jobs at building material and garden equipment supply stores.
"We may be wrestling through some consolidation and some economic adjustments in some industries and, yes, there will be a shock wave working its way through some other industries," Wehbey said.
Still, Wehbey said, the situation isn't bleak and the state's economy continues to show vitality.
"We know that we have announced layoffs. We know that we have a general slowdown. However, we still have other sectors of the economy that are doing fairly well, at least for the moment."
Looking ahead, Wehbey said the winter pre-holiday sales period may not be as bright as years past, but won't likely be a bust either.
Consumers "may pull back on a lot of big-ticket items and they may pull back in general among who they give gifts to but it won't stop them from totally spending," he added. "I don't think we're in that kind of economy."
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