US software programming jobs took a real wacking at the end of the last recession, but bounced back since—in spite of the offshoring trend and the rise of the Indian tech services industry. Now we’re heading into another recession, it seems. Will US software programmers lose out again? I’m betting no. The reason: The impending retirement of the babyboomers. Already, a lot of federal government programmers are retiring, since they’re reached the retirement age of 55. This factor—combined with low graduating rates for computer science majors—is already causing a shortfall in US programming talent. I believe that whatever cost cutting that’s done by companies during a recession will be more than offset by the software talent shortfall. Five years from now, US programmers will be in even greater demand.
New data supporting these conclusions came in this week from the IT Governance Institute. In its IT governance Global Status Report-2008, the ITGI reported the results of its survey of global IT leaders. Fifty-eight percent of the respondents said "insufficient number of staff" was a big problem--putting it at the top of problems they listed. That's a substantial increase from 2005, when 35% said they face staffing shortages. Remember, this is a global survey, so the shortage isn't just in the U.S. John Lainhart, the principle advisor on IT governance to the ITGI, told me that the baby boomers retiring is the big culprit. With newly trained programmers in short supply, he said, "We'll have to retrain people coming out of professions that aren't doing so well."
I noticed that President Bush's budget proposal slashes the labor department budget, so there isn't much hope for federal retraining programs stepping into the breach.
Lainhart mentioned an innovative program at Penn State that seems like it's on the right track. They're teaching computer science students to be consultants rather than coding grunts. People in the program have to study a foreign language in addition to the major programming languages. In their course work they operate as teams and work on creating technology solutions for customers. Their exams are team-based, too.
This type of program seems sure to appeal to students, and also will give people the skills they need for sustainable, high-pay careers. But, to fill the staffing gap, we'll need a lot more of this kind of thing.
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