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June 13, 2004
WASHINGTON - The economy gained 1.2 million jobs in the last six months, a potential political boon for President Bush, but a development barely noticed by Lonnie Steele and hundreds of other voters surveyed by The Associated Press.
‘‘I don’t think he’s created anything,’’ said Steele, 57, an undecided voter from East Flat Rock, N.C. ‘‘I know a number of people who are educated people, and they are working two or three minimum-wage jobs just trying to put groceries on the table and keep their families alive.’’
Steele is not alone. Voters are too focused on the war in Iraq and other news — and too busy trying to make ends meet — to heed the upbeat economic news from the Bush administration. Few voters seem to be giving Bush credit for the new jobs or other signs of financial recovery.
An Associated Press survey of 788 registered voters conducted Monday through Wednesday showed that while they may be gaining confidence in the economy and Bush’s performance, 57 percent said the nation has lost jobs in the last six months. The Labor Department has reported just the opposite — nearly 1.2 million jobs gained in half a year.
‘‘The message hasn’t gotten out,’’ said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center. ‘‘It takes a while for national changes to get down to the people level.’’
The Nov. 2 election may hinge on whether the economy continues to improve and voters notice. The race is a dead heat, with Bush at 46 percent, Democrat John Kerry at 45 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 6 percent, according to the AP poll conducted by Ipsos-P ublic Affairs.
Kerry’s advisers say they’re not surprised that many voters don’t know about the new jobs. ‘‘It’s because the quality of jobs that have been created are inferior to the jobs that have been lost,’’ said one, Tad Devine.
Responded Bush spokeswoman Nicolle Devenish: ‘‘That’s just not true. Two thirds of the jobs that have been created are in sectors with higher-paying salaries than the national average.’’ She cited Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showing the average salary for nonsupervisory workers at $15.64 an hour.
But the BLS also reports that a bulk of the new jobs — 978,000 — comes from the private services sector, where the average hourly salary is $15.24. Of the sector’s professional and businesses services jobs created in May, nearly half are temporary help, the bureau said.
‘‘The jobs are being created for college students at McDonald’s,’’ said Barbara Mulkey, a Democratic voter from rural Floyd County, Ky. She said jobs had been lost, then didn’t budge in her opinion of Bush when told she was wrong.
Michelle Blundy initially said U.S. jobs had been lost and called herself a ‘‘probable’’ Bush voter. Informed about the jobs gain, the Grand Rapids, Mich., woman said she would vote for Bush — and chalked up her original skepticism to Michigan’s poor economy.
‘‘They’re going to say all the jobs in Michigan are going here or there, whereas there may be jobs created in Colorado that of course we don’t know about because we’re not there,’’ she said.
But many voters were like Steele, unswayed by the positive jobs figures. Though he had read about the gains in his local paper, the retired contractor still feels bad about the economy and the country, partly because of Iraq.
Bush campaign aides said the positive job news has been overshadowed by other events — from Martha Stewart’s legal troubles to the Iraqi prison abuse scandal to Ronald Reagan’s death. ‘‘There’s been a lot of news to compete with the economic news,’’ Devenish said.
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