State employment officials are expecting Oregon to add about 160,000 jobs over the next decade
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November 18, 2009
State forecasters are expecting modest job growth in Oregon between 2008 and 2018, with about one-third of those new jobs coming in health care services and education, according to a report released Tuesday.
The state Employment Department expects the state to add more than 160,000 jobs over the decade through economic growth, an increase of 9 percent.
That is only slightly less than the 10 percent growth rate that occurred during the previous decade, 1998-2008, forecasters said, but much slower than many previous 10-year periods.
The picture for job hunters brightens when you take into account that many people — 430,000 statewide — are expected to leave existing jobs from 2008 to 2018, either retiring or moving on, and thereby creating openings, senior analyst Nick Beleiciks said.
Lane County is expected to do slightly better in job creation than the state as a whole, adding 15,000 jobs over the decade, for a 10 percent growth rate.
An additional 38,000 job openings will occur when people retire or move on, Beleiciks said.
Health care services and education will add about 4,700 new jobs in the county, for a 22 percent growth rate.
The second fastest-growing industry is trade/transportation/utilities, which includings wholesale and retail trade. About 2,800 new jobs will be added, for a 10 percent growth rate.
Government jobs are ex-pected to increase by 3,300 locally, with much of that — 500 jobs — coming from the planned new state hospital near Junction City, Beleiciks said.
Statewide, education and health care services will be responsible for more than one-fourth of the new jobs being created in the decade, as the state’s population both grows and ages, according to state forecasters.
Manufacturing is the only main industry that is forecast to lose jobs over the 10-year period, more than 5,000 of them, for a decline of 3 percent.
Most of those job losses al-ready have occurred, however, Beleiciks said.
“Those are jobs that are lost, and aren’t likely to come back,” he said, in businesses such as RV manufacturing and wood products. “We should show some growth (in manufacturing jobs) from here on out, through the future,” he said, although at the end of the 10 years, the total number of jobs will still be lower than at the beginning.
“Metro areas are expected to grow at close to the statewide average and half of the state’s job growth will be in the Portland area,” according to the new report.
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