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September 17, 2010
ALBANY -- Private employers in the Capital Region are beginning to hire, but government job losses have the area's unemployment rate stuck in the mud.
The number of nongovernment jobs was up by 800 positions in August.
But the number of government jobs was down by 2,000.
The end result: an unemployment rate of 6.8 percent -- a tie for the highest rate for the month since the state began tracking Capital Region unemployment in 1990.
The jobless rate for the month was unchanged from a year earlier and was down just slightly from the July rate of 6.9 percent. The numbers suggest a job market that's idling in neutral.
"We're a little bit stuck," said James Ross, who analyzes Capital Region data for the labor department. "We don't have a strong direction either way."
The labor department on Thursday took pains to highlight good news from the private sector, noting that companies such as Albany Medical Center and GlobalFoundries are doing significant hiring.
But Thursday also brought grim tidings: Gov. David Paterson said the state will enact layoffs by year's end to close a looming budget gap.
The layoff threat could impact other sectors of the Capital Region economy -- and might even thwart the private sector's fledgling steps toward full recovery.
"We're still in a situation where the government is the biggest employer in the Capital Region," Albany economist Anthony Riccardi said. "And there's a multiplier effect when the biggest employer lays people off. There'll be an effect on every other business."
The Capital Region's unemployment rate is relatively low when compared with the nation (9.5 percent), the state (8.2 percent) and other New York metropolitan areas.
The rate of joblessness in the Buffalo area, for example, was 7.6 percent in August. In the New York City area, it was 9.6 percent.
Few areas of the country, in fact, show much employment improvement from earlier this year or this time in 2009.
"It's a very slow and painful recovery," Riccardi said. "I don't expect the economy to recover substantially until mid-2011."
Government isn't the only Capital Region sector with job losses. Retail is also down significantly, shedding 2,500 positions in a year.
The reason: People aren't spending, so stores aren't hiring.
And looming state layoffs are unlikely to encourage a reversal of the trend.
"If people think they're going to lose their jobs, they'll cut down on spending," Ross said.
Looking for employment bright spots?
Then turn toward the job sector that includes professional, scientific and technical services.
It gained 1,300 jobs over the year and is clearly a growing regional strength.
Health care and private education also gained, adding 1,200 jobs, the labor department reported.