Firms expect employment situation to worsen
HR Gateway, Editorial




August 04, 2003

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Brief Details

Business confidence is falling and employment levels are to fall along with it, claimed business leaders today in a new regional survey.

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Employers across the UK feel that recruitment will slow down over the coming months with business confidence falling in 10 of the 12 regions across the country, suggest new figures released today.

A balance of minus 24% of employers said that they expanded recruitment over the past few months, with minus 26% saying that they will be doing so over the coming few months, claims the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey.

The North West was the only region to record a positive balance on employment in the CBI’s latest Regional Trends Survey, with areas such as the West Midlands looking very pessimistic about employment and recording a balance of minus 40.

Surveying 877 businesses across the UK, the findings also suggest that business confidence is plummeting with only two regions – Northern Ireland and the South East – avoiding a decline in business sentiment.

Wales suffered the sharpest drop in confidence in the UK, reporting a balance of minus 38%. However, for the first time in 15 months over half of firms are expecting orders to increase - five regions expect total orders to rise over the next three months.

The latest Recruitment Confidence Index (RCI) from Cranfield University and the Daily Telegraph released last week, suggested that while business confidence had dropped, more employers were looking to hire than to fire.

As business confidence drops recruitment confidence is on the rise, it stated, with the RCI recording 125 for all levels of staff – this is up from 113 in the previous quarter – and 117 for professional and managerial staff – up from 109 last quarter.

Employers expecting to keep their employee numbers the same or looking to expand numbers accounted for 81% of respondents, while those looking at either no change or looking to reduce numbers account for 62% - 43% said ‘no change’.

The CBI’s head of economic analysis said today that firms were struggling to stay afloat with job shedding expected in almost every region. The Bank of England needs to remain vigilant when it comes to interest rate cuts, he said:

‘Though interest rates may be at the appropriate level for the time being, the Bank of England should remain vigilant. Further rate reductions may yet prove necessary later in the year should the elusive global recovery fail to materialize,’ he said.

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